Morning Moves 

Research Desk –Stock Broking

26th February 2016

 

 

Global Indices Market

Global Indices

(Close)

(Pts)

Chg (%)

SGX Nifty

7067.00

55.00

0.78

Dow Jones

16697.29

212.30

1.29

NASDAQ

4582.21

39.60

0.87

S&P 500

1957.70

21.90

1.13

FTSE 100

6012.81

145.63

2.48

Nikkei 225*

16346.98

206.64

1.28

Hang Seng

19225.05

336.30

1.78

Source: Bloomberg, leading business web   *(as of 7:30 am) IST        80137827

 

Sectoral Gainers/Losers

Sector

(Close)

(Pts)

Chg (%)

S&P BSE METAL

6638.67

26.84

0.41

S&P BSE Tele

1214.38

2.13

0.18

S&P BSE Utilitie

1358.77

-34.34

-2.46

S&P BSE POWER

1585.7

-35.45

-2.19

Source: BSE India

 

Nifty: Top Gainers & Losers

Gainers

%Chg

Losers

%Chg

ONGC

3.63

POWERGRID

-5.01

SUNPHARMA

2.63

BANKBARODA

-2.80

COALINDIA

2.12

YESBANK

-2.80

IDEA

2.10

SBIN

-2.75

HDFC

1.95

ACC

-2.69

Source: NSE India | Bloomberg

 

Institutional Activity

Cash Market

Net Value

Futures (FIIs)

Net Value

FII

-1465.68

Index

-2435.38

DII

806.97

Stock

468.52

Source: NSE India | Value (Rs in Crs)

 

Intra-day Recommendations

Scrip Code

Act

Entry

SL

TGT

HINDUNILVR

L

ABV 847

832

870

TATASTEEL

L

ABV 250

244

259

COLPAL

S

BLW 820

833

800

DLF

S

BLW 83

86

78.5

RELIANCE

S

942-943

957

919

 

 

 

 

 

Note: Act=Action: Entry=Entry; SL=Stop loss; Tgt=Target; L= Long; S= Short,

Market Watch

ü  Fitch Assigns NTPC's $500 Million Notes Final 'BBB-' Rating

ü  Jet, Korean Air ink codeshare pact

ü  RelCap to transfer commercial finance biz into separate firm

ü  Videocon Telecom targets Rs 10K cr revenue from new biz by '20

ü  Companies garner Rs 23,000cr via NCDs in FY'16

ü  Mahindra Finance may launch mutual fund biz by April

Air India to Shave off its Losses by Around 40%: Government

Source: Bloomberg, leading business newspapers & websites

Market View

NIFTY.JPEG

 

Weakness likely to persist; sell below 7040 levels:  Railway budget derailed Indian markets and resulted in Nifty ending at a fresh 52-week closing lows on the last day of February series. Nifty continued its losing streak for the third straight session and ended at 6971 with a loss of 48 points. Lack of major announcements in railway budget and mixed cues from Asian markets kept sentiments on low. On the global front, our Chinese counterpart Shangai Composite fell more than 6% also weighing on participants’ sentiment across Asia. Even the cooling of India VIX over the last two sessions indicate participants are discounting that major announcements might not be there in the upcoming union budget. On the global front, both European and U.S equities ended on a positive note as oil prices steadied, although, a revision to euro zone inflation data dented confidence. Going forward today might be a cautious day ahead of union budget due on Monday. However, volatility in global markets shall continue to dictate our market movements. Technically, Nifty’s chart cycle, its sustenance below all major moving averages and closing at fresh 52-weeks lows on daily basis confirming it’s down trend. Going ahead, 6850-6870 levels need to be watched for the coming sessions, any sustenance below the said levels shall trigger fresh down move 6550-6600 levels. While on the higher side, 7250-7300 need to be watched for short term bottom to be in place. For now, immediate support is near 6850-6870, while immediate resistance is placed at around 7045-7060 and above it at 7110-7120 zones. Therefore, for the day we recommend traders to sell below  7040 keeping a stop loss of 7100 for the target of 6960-6950.(Spot Levels)

Nifty Option: Buy Nifty March 6900 PE above140 | SL: 120    | TGT: 175-180 | TF: 3-4 Days


DERIVATIVES INSIGHT

 

 

Nifty Tracker

Particulars

(Close)

(Pts)

Chg(%)

Nifty Spot

6970.60

    7018.70

-0.69

Nifty Near Fut.

7001.10

    7041.65

-0.58

Nifty Near Fut. OI

1.87

0.70

166.61

Nifty COC %

4.56

1.82

2.74

Nifty PCR Vol

0.94

0.89

6.13

Nifty PCR OI

0.58

0.67

-14.41

Bank Nifty Spot

13555.70

13794.00

-1.73

Bank Nifty Fut.

13633.60

13811.40

-1.29

Bank Nifty Fut. OI

0.23

0.17

35.50

Bank Nifty COC %

5.99

-9.13

15.12

Market OI (Rs. cr.)

238296

222031

7.32

India VIX

22.74

22.95

-0.92

Source: Bloomberg, leading business web   *(as of 7:30 am) IST        80137827

 

Options Activity (Near Month)

OPEN INT

OI CHG

 

Hybrid Strategy Payoff

Source: NSE India | Value (Rs in Crs)

Nifty Dynamics

ü  Nifty March future is trading at a premium of 30.50 points as compared to a premium of 22.95 points in the last trading session. While, BANKNIFTY March futures is trading at a premium of 77.90 as compared to premium of 17.40 points.

ü  On the options front, Nifty March 6800 PE added 10.31 lakh shares in open interest and on the upside Nifty March 7200 CE added 8.13 lakh shares in open interest. The highest OI is in March 7000 PE of around 43.66 lakh shares while highest OI is in March 7200 CE of around 25.74lakh shares.

ü  Nifty put options has seen added of 16 lakh shares in open interest, while Nifty call options has seen additions of 179 lakh shares in open interest. India VIX ended at 22.74 from 22.95 while Nifty historical volatility decreased to 24.79% from 25.35%.

ü  Nifty call options average Implied Volatility (IV) decreased to 20.51% from 33.74% and Nifty Put options average Implied Volatility (IV) decreased to 21.56% from 32.59% with market OI at Rs. 238296 crore.

 

Source: Bloomberg, leading business newspapers & websites

Positional Recommendations

 

SUNPHARMA March Futures: Buy @ 875-878 with stop loss 857 for targets of 910 (SPOT): SUNPHARMA has gained more than 2.60% with notable volumes and outperformed broader market in last trading session. Technically, the stock has given break out from a bullish channel last week and is sustaining well above it, indicating possible start of fresh up move in the counter. Even on the derivative front, it is witnessing long built up in its March Future series over last few sessions. Hence, buy into the counter for short term.

 

ACC March Futures: Sell @ 1200-1205 with a SL of 1240 for targets of 1135 (SPOT): ACC March Futures witnessed addition of shorts in the last trading session with decrease in the stock price by 2.70% and increase in OI by 19.96%. Technically, the stock has given break down from a trading range and also clocked fresh 52weeks lows in yesterday’s trade. Therefore, one may go short with stop of 1240 for targets of 1135

 

YESBANK March 660 PE: Buy @ 26.75-27 with SL of 16 for targets of 48. YESBANK March. 660 strike PE has OI of 48,300 and seen addition of 20,300 in the last trading session with IV’s at 42.61%. Technically, the stock is in the cycle of lower highs and lower lows on daily charts from 778 levels and also trading well below all major moving averages. Hence, we recommend traders to buy stock’s 660 PE with stop below 16 level for expiry.

 

Hybrid Strategy

PUT RATIO SPREAD IN TATAMOTORS:  TATAMOTORS March Future has total open interest of 2,66,29,500 shares while TATAMOTORS Mar. 300 PE witnessed addition of 21000 shares making a total OI of 2,32,500 shares during the last trading session. TATAMOTORS Mar.270 PE witnessed addition of 31,500 shares making a total OI of 49500 shares during the last trading session.
 
Strategy:
Buy one lot of TATAMOTORS March 300 PE @ 16.80, Sell Two lot of TATAMOTORS March 270 PE @ 6.20;  Max Gain:38400; Max Loss:6600 & unlimited below LBEP ; LBEP:244.40; UBEP: 295.6

 

­

 


 

 

PIVOT TABLE

SYMBOL

CMP

S2

S1

PIVOT

R1

R2

SENSEX

22976.00

22827.49

22901.75

23022.35

23096.61

23217.21

NIFTY

6970.60

6915.93

6943.27

6988.73

7016.07

7061.53

AXISBANK

378.20

370.80

374.50

381.15

384.85

391.50

BAJAJ-AUTO

2322.00

2261.70

2291.85

2322.35

2352.50

2383.00

BHARTIARTL

322.55

314.55

318.55

322.00

326.00

329.45

BHEL

94.35

90.02

92.18

93.52

95.68

97.02

CIPLA

519.00

505.13

512.07

516.93

523.87

528.73

COALINDIA

299.40

288.13

293.77

300.83

306.47

313.53

DRREDDY

2994.45

2962.98

2978.72

3000.73

3016.47

3038.48

GAIL

305.05

294.55

299.80

307.75

313.00

320.95

HDFC

1042.65

996.48

1019.57

1034.53

1057.62

1072.58

HDFCBANK

942.65

926.98

934.82

946.03

953.87

965.08

HEROMOTOCO

2621.35

2571.28

2596.32

2619.33

2644.37

2667.38

HINDALCO

67.15

65.65

66.40

67.20

67.95

68.75

HINDUNILVR

842.80

826.67

834.73

840.47

848.53

854.27

ICICIBANK

183.00

177.07

180.03

184.52

187.48

191.97

INFY

1110.30

1084.50

1097.40

1114.00

1126.90

1143.50

ITC

286.20

280.53

283.37

286.83

289.67

293.13

LT

1086.45

1058.15

1072.30

1096.15

1110.30

1134.15

M&M

1229.05

1203.98

1216.52

1229.58

1242.12

1255.18

MARUTI

3414.15

3332.72

3373.43

3441.72

3482.43

3550.72

NTPC

118.50

115.93

117.22

118.18

119.47

120.43

ONGC

216.25

206.35

211.30

214.55

219.50

222.75

RELIANCE

944.10

931.47

937.78

947.17

953.48

962.87

SBIN

151.80

146.53

149.17

153.63

156.27

160.73

SUNPHARMA

875.35

845.85

860.60

870.30

885.05

894.75

TATAMOTORS

298.20

286.20

292.20

302.20

308.20

318.20

TATAPOWER

57.05

55.18

56.12

57.53

58.47

59.88

TATASTEEL

248.15

242.28

245.22

247.53

250.47

252.78

TCS

2212.85

2166.48

2189.67

2208.83

2232.02

2251.18

VEDL

69.60

67.40

68.50

70.45

71.55

73.50

WIPRO

533.85

514.92

524.38

531.57

541.03

548.22

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corporate Actions

Company

Series

Ex-Date

Record Date

 

Purpose

BFUTILITIE

EQ

29-Feb-16

-

 

AGM

IDFCBANK

HB

3-Mar-16

4-Mar-16

 

Interest Payment

BPCL

EQ

3-Mar-16

5-Mar-16

 

Interim Dividend - Rs 3.50/- Per Share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Page 1: FII= Foreign institutional investor, DII= Domestic institutional investor.|Page 2:Fut=Futures; COC=Cost of Carry; PCR = Put Call Ratio; Vol = Volume; OI = Open Interest; VIX = Volatility Index | Page 3:Pivot Point: Intra-day trading tool that applies stop loss based on NSE prices.| Pivot Point: This is a trigger point for intra-day buy/sell based on the price range of the previous day, based on NSE prices.| R1 (Resistance 1): First resistance over pivot point; R2 (Resistance 2): Second resistance over R1.| S1 (Support 1): First support below pivot point; S2 (Support 2): Second support below S1.| As per the tool, the trader should take a BUY position just above the pivot point; the stop loss should be kept at the pivot point and the first target would be R1. If R1 is crossed, then R2 becomes the next target with the stop loss at R1.Similarly, if the price falls below the pivot point, the trader should SELL, keeping the pivot point as the stop loss and the first target as S1. If S1 is crossed, then S2 becomes the next target with the stop loss at S1.

 

 

KARVY RESEARCH DESK – STOCK BROKING

QUERIES & FEEDBACK

JK Jain

Toll-Free: 1800 425 8283

Head Research

Email ID: service@karvy.com

Karvy Stock Broking Limited : “Karvy Centre”, Avenue-4, 2nd Floor, Road No: 10, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad – 500 034. India.

Tel: 91-40-23312454; Fax: 91-40-23311968

 

Analyst Certification

The following analyst(s), JK Jain, who is (are) primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report.

Disclaimer

 

Karvy Stock Broking Limited [KSBL] is a SEBI registered Stock Broker, Depository Participant, and Portfolio Manager and also distributes financial products. The subsidiaries and group companies including associates of KSBL provide services as Registrars and Share Transfer Agents, Commodity Broker, Currency and forex broker, merchant banker and underwriter, Investment Advisory services, insurance repository services, financial consultancy and advisory services, realty services, data management, data analytics, market research, solar power, film distribution and production profiling  and related services. Therefore associates of KSBL are likely to have business relations with most of the companies whose securities are traded on the exchange platform. The information and views presented in this report are prepared by Karvy Stock Broking Limited and are subject to change without any notice. This report is based on information obtained from public sources, the respective corporate under coverage and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of KSBL. While we would endeavor to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, KSBL is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent KSBL from doing so. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. KSBL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned in this report, investors may please note that neither   KSBL nor any associate companies of KSBL accepts any liability arising from the use of information and views mentioned in this report. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections.

 

·          Associates of KSBL might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

·          Associates of KSBL might have received compensation from the subject company mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months or for services rendered as Registrar and Share Transfer Agent, Commodity Broker, Currency and forex broker, merchant banker and underwriter, Investment Advisory services, insurance repository services, consultancy and advisory services, realty services, data processing, profiling and related services or in any other capacity.

·          KSBL encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report.

·          Compensation of KSBL’s Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

·          KSBL generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

·          KSBL or its associates collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.

·          KSBL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report and have no financial interest in the subject company mentioned in this report.

·          Accordingly, neither KSBL nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

·          It is confirmed that KSBL and Research Analysts primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein of this report have not received any compensation from the subject company mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months.

·          It is confirmed that JK Jain, Research Analyst did not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

·          KSBL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

·          Neither the Research Analysts nor KSBL have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.

·          We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on KSBL by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analyst activities.