Morning Moves 

Research Desk –Stock Broking

24th February 2016

 

 

Global Indices Market

Global Indices

(Close)

(Pts)

Chg (%)

SGX Nifty

7111.50

2.50

0.04

Dow Jones

16431.78

-188.88

-1.14

NASDAQ

4503.58

-67.02

-1.47

S&P 500

1921.27

-24.23

-1.25

FTSE 100

5962.31

-75.42

-1.25

Nikkei 225*

15983.22

-68.33

-0.43

Hang Seng

19355.68

-59.10

-0.30

Source: Bloomberg, leading business web   *(as of 7:30 am) IST        80137827

 

Sectoral Gainers/Losers

Sector

(Close)

(Pts)

Chg (%)

S&P BSE IT

10583.59

-86.4

-0.81

S&P BSE HC

15469.82

-170.02

-1.09

S&P BSE BANKEX

15892.49

-461

-2.82

S&P BSE REALTY

1057.68

-27.01

-2.49

Source: BSE India

 

Nifty: Top Gainers & Losers

Gainers

%Chg

Losers

%Chg

ASIANPAINT

0.4

BANKBARODA

-4.81

-

-

CAIRN

-4.32

-

-

PNB

-4.1

-

-

COALINDIA

-3.95

-

-

SBIN

-3.85

Source: NSE India | Bloomberg

 

Institutional Activity

Cash Market

Net Value

Futures (FIIs)

Net Value

FII

-289.66

Index

216.00

DII

257.93

Stock

867.30

Source: NSE India | Value (Rs in Crs)

 

Intra-day Recommendations

Scrip Code

Act

Entry

SL

TGT

APOLLOHOSP

L

ABV 1446

1420

1485

CADILAHC

L

ABV 333

326

344

PTC

S

60-60.3

61.3

58

TATAPOWER

S

58-58.3

59.1

56.3

WOCKPHARMA

S

BLW 780

802

747

 

 

 

 

 

Note: Act=Action: Entry=Entry; SL=Stop loss; Tgt=Target; L= Long; S= Short,

Market Watch

ü  Flash strike at Tata Motors' Sanand plant

ü  Maruti resumes production in Gurgaon and Manesar

ü  Jet Airways appoints Rahul Taneja as Chief People Officer

ü  NTPC OFS: Non-retail subscription at 1.81 times

ü  ITC, VST Inds. slip on reports of hike in excise duty on cigarettes

ü  Piramal Fund to commit Rs 15000 crore under new financing line to developers

ü  Standard Chartered reports $981 million loss from Indian operations

ü  Coal Ministry allots two mines to NLC

 

Source: Bloomberg, leading business newspapers & websites

Market View

NIFTY.JPEG

Weakness likely to continue; sell on rise: Indian equity indices faltered and resumed its down move, snapping four sessions of gains in yesterday’s trade. Nifty tumbled 125points but managed to close above 7100 levels at 7109 amid selling pressure throughout the day. The Budget Session of Parliament has begun amid the on-going political controversies. Participants became wary just ahead of the Union Budget and await the fate of crucial bills such as GST. Even the slump in Asian equities and crude oil prices added fuel to the downward move on markets. India VIX which has risen by 13% and ended at 24 indicate bumpy ride ahead towards expiry which is due tomorrow. On the global front, both European and US equities ended on a flat to negative note terminating the winning streak.  Going forward, our markets may continue to remain volatile ahead of expiry of February derivatives and railway budget due tomorrow and Union Budget that is scheduled to be announced on February 29. Apart from domestic cues our markets are likely to tune for global financial and commodity markets movements. Technically, Nifty has breached the cycle of higher highs and higher lows on daily bar charts and closed at the day’s lowest point engulfing last three days up move, indicating fresh down move has started. For now, the immediate supports are placed in the zone of 6990-7020 and below it at 6870-6920 levels, while immediate resistance is placed at around 7170-7190 and above it at 7240-7255 zones. Therefore, for the day we recommend traders to sell on rise towards 7150-7140 keeping a stoploss above 7200 for the targets of 7060-7050. (Spot Levels)

Nifty Option: Buy Nifty Feb. 7100 PE @30 | SL:  Below 15 | TGT: 50 | TF: Intraday.

­


DERIVATIVES INSIGHT

 

 

Nifty Tracker

Particulars

(Close)

(Pts)

Chg(%)

Nifty Spot

7109.00

7234.55

-1.74

Nifty Near Fut.

7113.10

7240.70

-1.76

Nifty Near Fut. OI

1.43

1.86

-22.99

Nifty COC %

-306.37

10.34

-316.71

Nifty PCR Vol

0.84

0.94

-10.69

Nifty PCR OI

0.73

0.79

-7.94

Bank Nifty Spot

14008.35

14384.40

-2.61

Bank Nifty Fut.

14010.50

14395.70

-2.68

Bank Nifty Fut. OI

0.21

0.21

-0.95

Bank Nifty COC %

2.80

9.56

-6.76

Market OI (Rs. cr.)

224342

219,216

2.29

India VIX

23.83

21.02

13.37

Source: Bloomberg, leading business web   *(as of 7:30 am) IST        80137827

 

Options Activity (Near Month)

OPEN INT

OI CHG

 

Hybrid Strategy Payoff

Source: NSE India | Value (Rs in Crs)

Nifty Dynamics

ü  Nifty Feb. future is trading at a premium of 4.10 points as compared to a premium of 6.15 points in the last trading session. While, BANKNIFTY Feb. futures is trading at a premium of 2.15 as compared to premium of 11.30 points.

ü  On the options front, Nifty Feb. 7050 PE added 14.88 lakh shares in open interest and on the upside Nifty Feb. 7200 CE added 27.60 lakh shares in open interest. The highest OI is in Feb. 7000 PE of around 51.84 lakh shares while highest OI is in Feb. 7200 CE of around 68.09 lakh shares.

ü  Nifty put options has seen shed of 12 lakh shares in open interest, while Nifty call options has seen additions of 54 lakh shares in open interest. India VIX ended at 23.83 from 21.02 while Nifty historical volatility decreased to 24.81% from 25.54%.

ü  Nifty call options average Implied Volatility (IV) decreased to 21.32% from 23.93% and Nifty Put options average Implied Volatility (IV) increased to 70.74% from 24.74% with market OI at Rs. 224342 crore.

Source: Bloomberg, leading business newspapers & websites

Positional Recommendations

 

BRITANNIA March Futures: Buy above 2821 with stop below 2760 for targets of 2930 (SPOT): BRITANNIA has witnessed a rally of more than 12% from the lows of 2505 to the highs of 2818, however in last trade the stock has formed a Doji candle stick pattern indicating a pause in the current up move. Hence, a move above yesterday’s highs shall trigger a fresh rally into the stock. Even on the derivative front, it is witnessing long built up in its March Future series over last few sessions. Hence, buy into the counter for short term above 2821 with stop below 2760.


ADANIENT Mar Fut: Sell @ 61.50-61.75 with a SL of 64 for targets of 56 (SPOT): ADANIENT March Futures witnessed addition of shorts in the last trading session with decrease in the stock price by 2.41% and increase in OI by 48%. Technically, the stock has given break down from a small bearish flag pattern and also clocked fresh 52weeks lows in yesterday’s trade. Therefore, one may go short with stop above 64 for targets of 56.

 

BHEL FEB. 100 PE: Buy @ 2.70-2.90 with SL of 1 for targets of 6-6.20: BHEL FEB. 100 strike Put option has OI of 9,10,000 and seen shed of 3,56,000 in the last trading session .Technically, the stock is in the cycle of lower highs and lower lows and also trading well above all major moving averages. Hence, we recommend traders to buy stock’s 100 Put option with stop below 1 Re.

 

 

Hybrid Strategy

BEAR  PUT  IN SBIN: SBIN March  Future  has  total open interest of 4,59,14,000 shares while SBI March 160 PE witnessed addition of 76,000 shares making a total OI of 4,28,000 and March 145 PE witnessed addition of 28,000 shares making total OI of 3,30,000 shares in the previous trading session. 


Strategy: Buy one lot of SBIN MAR. 160 PE @ 11.50 and Sell one lot of SBIN MAR.145 PE @ 5.30| Max Profit: 17600 | Max Loss: 12400 |BEP:153.8

 

­

 


 

 

PIVOT TABLE

SYMBOL

CMP

S2

S1

PIVOT

R1

R2

SENSEX

23410.18

23051.64

23230.91

23541.21

23720.48

24030.78

NIFTY

7109.55

6996.32

7052.93

7147.32

7203.93

7298.32

AXISBANK

385.15

374.12

379.63

388.77

394.28

403.42

BAJAJ-AUTO

2396.45

2327.82

2362.13

2421.07

2455.38

2514.32

BHARTIARTL

321.30

309.23

315.27

324.13

330.17

339.03

BHEL

98.45

95.02

96.73

99.72

101.43

104.42

CIPLA

522.60

508.93

515.77

524.33

531.17

539.73

COALINDIA

301.10

290.63

295.87

304.93

310.17

319.23

DRREDDY

3080.90

3015.63

3048.27

3098.63

3131.27

3181.63

GAIL

317.00

309.93

313.47

319.23

322.77

328.53

HDFC

1051.10

1029.03

1040.07

1051.03

1062.07

1073.03

HDFCBANK

970.05

954.35

962.20

973.85

981.70

993.35

HEROMOTOCO

2661.15

2614.85

2638.00

2675.30

2698.45

2735.75

HINDALCO

68.50

65.33

66.92

69.38

70.97

73.43

HINDUNILVR

836.85

818.92

827.88

843.17

852.13

867.42

ICICIBANK

192.00

184.73

188.37

193.88

197.52

203.03

INFY

1123.90

1107.70

1115.80

1124.15

1132.25

1140.60

ITC

293.80

289.50

291.65

294.80

296.95

300.10

LT

1130.15

1106.18

1118.17

1137.08

1149.07

1167.98

M&M

1208.70

1180.43

1194.57

1217.83

1231.97

1255.23

MARUTI

3487.40

3423.50

3455.45

3511.95

3543.90

3600.40

NTPC

123.80

121.53

122.67

123.83

124.97

126.13

ONGC

214.60

208.80

211.70

214.75

217.65

220.70

RELIANCE

949.65

928.75

939.20

953.20

963.65

977.65

SBIN

158.50

153.50

156.00

160.50

163.00

167.50

SUNPHARMA

871.10

846.40

858.75

878.60

890.95

910.80

TATAMOTORS

318.55

308.95

313.75

319.25

324.05

329.55

TATAPOWER

58.00

57.03

57.52

58.28

58.77

59.53

TATASTEEL

253.55

246.25

249.90

255.75

259.40

265.25

TCS

2264.00

2217.07

2240.53

2280.22

2303.68

2343.37

VEDL

73.05

70.05

71.55

73.65

75.15

77.25

WIPRO

539.95

531.65

535.80

539.75

543.90

547.85

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corporate Actions

Company

Series

Ex-Date

Record Date

 

Purpose

HITECHGEAR

EQ

25-Feb-16

26-Feb-16

 

Interim Dividend - Rs 1.50/-

BFUTILITIE

EQ

29-Feb-16

-

 

AGM

IDFCBANK

HB

3-Mar-16

4-Mar-16

 

Interest Payment

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Page 1: FII= Foreign institutional investor, DII= Domestic institutional investor.|Page 2:Fut=Futures; COC=Cost of Carry; PCR = Put Call Ratio; Vol = Volume; OI = Open Interest; VIX = Volatility Index | Page 3:Pivot Point: Intra-day trading tool that applies stop loss based on NSE prices.| Pivot Point: This is a trigger point for intra-day buy/sell based on the price range of the previous day, based on NSE prices.| R1 (Resistance 1): First resistance over pivot point; R2 (Resistance 2): Second resistance over R1.| S1 (Support 1): First support below pivot point; S2 (Support 2): Second support below S1.| As per the tool, the trader should take a BUY position just above the pivot point; the stop loss should be kept at the pivot point and the first target would be R1. If R1 is crossed, then R2 becomes the next target with the stop loss at R1.Similarly, if the price falls below the pivot point, the trader should SELL, keeping the pivot point as the stop loss and the first target as S1. If S1 is crossed, then S2 becomes the next target with the stop loss at S1.

 

 

KARVY RESEARCH DESK – STOCK BROKING

QUERIES & FEEDBACK

JK Jain

Toll-Free: 1800 425 8283

Head Research

Email ID: service@karvy.com

Karvy Stock Broking Limited : “Karvy Centre”, Avenue-4, 2nd Floor, Road No: 10, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad – 500 034. India.

Tel: 91-40-23312454; Fax: 91-40-23311968

 

Analyst Certification

The following analyst(s), JK Jain, who is (are) primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report.

Disclaimer

 

Karvy Stock Broking Limited [KSBL] is a SEBI registered Stock Broker, Depository Participant, Portfolio Manager and also distributes financial products. The subsidiaries and group companies including associates of KSBL provide services as Registrars and Share Transfer Agents, Commodity Broker, Currency and forex broker, merchant banker and underwriter, Investment Advisory services, insurance repository services, financial consultancy and advisory services, realty services, data management, data analytics, market research, solar power, film distribution and production profiling  and related services. Therefore associates of KSBL are likely to have business relations with most of the companies whose securities are traded on the exchange platform. The information and views presented in this report are prepared by Karvy Stock Broking Limited and are subject to change without any notice. This report is based on information obtained from public sources, the respective corporate under coverage and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of KSBL. While we would endeavor to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, KSBL is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent KSBL from doing so. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. KSBL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned in this report, investors may please note that neither   KSBL nor any associate companies of KSBL accepts any liability arising from the use of information and views mentioned in this report. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections.

 

·          Associates of KSBL might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

·          Associates of KSBL might have received compensation from the subject company mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months or for services rendered as Registrar and Share Transfer Agent, Commodity Broker, Currency and forex broker, merchant banker and underwriter, Investment Advisory services, insurance repository services, consultancy and advisory services, realty services, data processing, profiling and related services or in any other capacity.

·          KSBL encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report.

·          Compensation of KSBL’s Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

·          KSBL generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

·          KSBL or its associates collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.

·          KSBL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report and have no financial interest in the subject company mentioned in this report.

·          Accordingly, neither KSBL nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

·          It is confirmed that KSBL and Research Analysts primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein of this report have not received any compensation from the subject company mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months.

·          It is confirmed that JK Jain, Research Analyst did not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

·          KSBL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

·          Neither the Research Analysts nor KSBL have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.

·          We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on KSBL by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analyst activities.