1
Mar 12, 2018
Economy & Strategy
For private circulation only. For important information about Karvy’s rating system and other disclosures refer
to the end of this material. Karvy Stock Broking Research is also available on Bloomberg, KRVY<GO>,
Thomson Publishers & Reuters
Economy & Strategy
Economic Insights
India Research - Stock Broking
CPI Softens to 4.4%, below consensus for February 2018
India’s Consumer Price Ination (CPI) for Feb 2018 came in at 4.44% YoY, below
than consensus (Bloomberg) of 4.70%. CPI declined as compared to January print
of 5.07% YoY. Softening of ination coupled with a pickup in growth (see section on
IIP below) is good news. CPI and IIP being better than consensus is likely to cheer
markets. Sharp decline in the period of April 2017 to June 2017 implies a higher
CPI print in the coming months, but should fall back thereafter. RBI forecasts CPI to
average 5.1% in H1FY19E and 4.5%-4.6% in H2FY19E. Overall we believe today’s
ination print being lower than expectations reduces the probability of a rate hike
in the immmediate future.
Ination ne print: The rural and urban ination for Feb 2018 came in at 4.37%
and 4.52% respectively. Food and Beverages product group ination came in at
3.38 % in Feb 2018 vs. 4.58% in Jan 2018 driven by vegetable and egg prices,
which grew at 17.57% and 8.51% respectively. Conversely, prices for pulses de-
grew by -17.35%, similar to the previous month (-20.19%). Pan, tobacco and
intoxicants group ination recorded 7.34%. Clothing & Footwear ination came in
at 5.0%. Housing group ination is recorded at 8.28%, similar to that of Jan 2018
at 8.3% which reects rise in HRA for civil servants. Fuel & Light group ination
came at 6.80% as compared to 7.73% of Jan 2018. Miscellaneous product group
ination is recorded at 3.85%. The annual consensus for CPI stands at 3.7% and
4.6% for FY18E and FY19E respectively.
IIP growth for January 2018 posted 7.5%
IIP growth for Jan 2018 registered 7.5% YoY (higher than consensus of 6.4%) as
compared to 7.1% of Dec 2017 driven by the manufacturing sector, which grew at
8.7% YoY supported by 16 out of 23 industry groups.
The cumulative growth for the period Apr 2017-Jan 2018 stands at 4.1% YoY. The
3-month moving average (Nov-Jan 2018) is 7.8% as compared to 3.6% during
the same period in 2017. Though volatile, this is supportive of a pick up in growth
momentum, while ination appears to be well behaved.
Exhibit: India CPI (%)
Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research
Analyst Contacts
J K Jain
Jayasree Ram
040 - 3321 6300/6270
jambu@karvy.com
jayasree.ram@karvy.com
Data for the day
CPI % 4.44
IIP % 7.50
India at a glance
GDP growth % (Q3FY18) 7.20
GVA growth % (Q3FY18) 6.70
IIP Growth % (Feb 2018) 7.50
WPI % (Jan 2017) 2.84
CPI % (Feb 2018) 4.44
Exports growth % (Feb 2018) 9.07
Imports growth % (Feb 2018) 26.10
Fiscal decit % (FY18E) (3.30)
Debt / GDP % (Q3FY18) 50.10
Credit growth % (Jan. 2018) 10.65
Composite PMI (Feb 2018) 49.70
Manufacturing PMI (Feb 2018) 52.10
Services PMI (Feb 2018) 47.80
CRR % 4.00
SLR % 19.50
Repo Rate % 6.00
Reverse Repo % 5.75
Call Money Rate % 5.75
3-M T-bill Yld % 6.26
1-Y T-bill Yld % 6.60
10YR Govt Bond Yld % 7.63
1-Y CP Rate 8.10
Forex Reserve (Bln $) 420.80
Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research, *As on Mar 12, 2018
0
2
4
6
8
10
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
CPI (%)
Core CPI (%)
3M Moving Avg CPI (%)
2
Mar 12, 2018
Economy & Strategy
Exhibit: India IIP (%)
Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research
Exhibit: India Calender
Date Event Month Prior
14-Mar-18 WPI Ination YoY Jan
2.84%
12-Apr-18 CPI YoY Feb
4.44%
12-Apr-18 Industrial Production YoY Feb
7.50%
Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research Data Updated at Mar 12, 2018 17:40 IST
The release is indicative of the steady momentum in the economy (7.2%
in Q3FY17-18 compared to 6.3% YoY in Q2FY17-18) being maintained in
Q3FY17-18. Mining, Manufacturing and Electricity sectors grew at 0.1%, 8.7% and
7.6% YoY respectively. In the manufacturing sector, transport equipment recorded
the highest growth of 33.1% YoY, followed by manufacture of furniture at 26.6% YoY.
Conversely, tobacco products have reported the highest de-growth at -46.5% YoY,
followed by -32.4% and -13.2% in other manufacturing and printing & reproduction
of recorded media respectively.
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
IIP (%)
3
Mar 12, 2018
Economy & Strategy
Exhibit: GDP Trillion $ & Growth (%)
Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research
Exhibit: CPI Inflation (%)
Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research
Exhibit: Mcap/GDP (%)
Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research
Exhibit: Fiscal Deficit / GDP (%)
Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research
Exhibit: Unemployment Rate (%)
Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research
Exhibit: Yld-CPI Spread
Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research, Represents 10YR Govt Bond Yld
Globe at a Glance
Trillion $ Economies
5.3
4.4
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.7
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.1
0.6
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
MEXICO
INDIA
UK
CHINA
BRAZIL
RUSSIA
US
AUSTRALIA
CANADA
GERMANY
JAPAN
S.KOREA
FRANCE
SPAIN
ITALY
5.0
2.6
2.2
2.1
1.4
1.3
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.3
-0.3
-0.8
-1.3
-1.5
-2
0
2
4
6
RUSSIA
INDIA
MEXICO
BRAZIL
ITALY
S.KOREA
CHINA
AUSTRALIA
US
CANADA
SPAIN
FRANCE
GERMANY
JAPAN
UK
164
148
144
132
124
114
105
104
72
70
67
49
43
39
32
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
US
CANADA
JAPAN
UK
S.KOREA
INDIA
AUSTRALIA
FRANCE
GERMANY
CHINA
SPAIN
BRAZIL
RUSSIA
ITALY
MEXICO
16.6
11.1
9.0
8.8
8.2
5.8
5.5
5.4
5.2
4.4
4.1
3.9
3.6
3.4
2.4
0
6
12
18
SPAIN
ITALY
FRANCE
INDIA
BRAZIL
CANADA
AUSTRALIA
GERMANY
RUSSIA
UK
US
CHINA
S.KOREA
MEXICO
JAPAN
3.1
1.8
0.8
0.8
-0.8
-0.9
-1.3
-2.5
-2.9
-3.3
-3.4
-3.4
-3.7
-5.0
-7.5
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
SPAIN
RUSSIA
GERMANY
S.KOREA
MEXICO
AUSTRALIA
CANADA
ITALY
UK
INDIA
US
FRANCE
CHINA
JAPAN
BRAZIL
18.6
11.2
4.9
3.5
2.6
2.5
2.3
1.9
1.8
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.0
0
2
4
6
8
-1
3
7
11
15
19
US
CHINA
JAPAN
GERMANY
UK
FRANCE
INDIA
ITALY
BRAZIL
CANADA
S.KOREA
RUSSIA
SPAIN
AUSTRALIA
MEXICO
GDP (Trillion $)
GDP growth (%)
4
Mar 12, 2018
Economy & Strategy
Equities
EQUITY INDEX LTP 1D %Chg 1Y %Chg 52WH 52WL PE (x)
INDIA NSE NIFTY 10421 1.9 16.6 11172 8904 22.4
US S&P 500 2787 1.7 17.4 2873 2322 22.5
US NASDAQ 7561 1.8 29.0 7561 5769 32.9
CHINA SHANGHAI 3327 0.6 3.5 3587 3017 17.1
EURO STOXX 50 3437 0.5 0.6 3709 3307 15.9
JAPAN NIKKEI 225 21824 1.7 11.3 24129 18225 16.0
UK FTSE100 7225 0.0 (1.6) 7793 7062 13.3
HONGKONG HANGSENG 31594 1.9 34.1 33484 23439 13.9
CANADA TSX 15578 0.3 0.5 16421 14786 17.8
FRANCE CAC 40 5287 0.2 5.9 5567 4954 16.5
AUSTRALIA ASX 200 5996 0.6 3.8 6150 5630 17.6
GERMANY DAX 12431 0.7 3.9 13597 11831 16.6
SWISS MARKET INDEX 8977 0.5 3.5 9616 8492 29.9
SOUTH KOREA KOSPI 2484 1.0 18.4 2607 2082 16.2
TAIWAN TAIEX 11002 1.3 14.3 11270 9563 15.9
SPAIN IBEX35 9738 0.5 (2.7) 11184 9495 14.3
BRAZIL BOVESPA 86371 1.6 33.5 88318 60315 20.9
NETHERLANDS AEX 539 0.3 5.4 573 506 16.4
SWEDEN OMX 30 1596 0.4 0.5 1682 1488 18.2
ITALY MIB 22844 0.4 16.2 24050 19443 13.0
SINGAPORE STRAITS 3540 1.6 13.0 3612 3107 11.6
THAILAND SE THAI 1800 1.4 16.9 1853 1529 18.3
INDONESIA JAKARTA 6501 1.0 20.6 6693 5370 23.8
MEXICO BOLSA 48556 0.7 3.1 51772 46598 20.9
MALAYSIA BURSA KLCI 1861 0.9 8.4 1881 1708 17.5
NEW ZEALAND 50 8464 0.9 17.9 8478 7020 21.0
Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research
Currencies
Currency pair with $ Unit LTP %1D %1Y 52WH 52WL
INDIAN RUPEE INR / 1 $ 65.055 0.2 2.4 66.2 63.2
EURO $ / 1 EUR 1.231 0.0 15.6 1.3 1.1
JAPANESE YEN JPY / 1 $ 106.56 0.2 7.8 115.2 105.3
BRITISH POUND $ / 1 GBP 1.386 0.1 13.4 1.4 1.2
CANADIAN DOLLAR CAD / 1 $ 1.283 (0.1) 4.9 1.4 1.2
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR $ / 1 AUD 0.786 0.3 3.9 0.8 0.7
NEWZEALAND DOLLAR $ / 1 NZD 0.731 0.4 5.5 0.8 0.7
SWISS FRANC CHF / 1 $ 0.950 0.2 6.0 1.0 0.9
NORWEGIAN KRONE NOK / 1 $ 7.783 (0.0) 10.1 8.7 7.6
SWEDISH KRONA SEK / 1 $ 8.255 (0.1) 8.3 9.1 7.8
CHINA RENMINBI CNY / 1 $ 6.328 0.1 9.3 6.9 6.3
HONGKONG DOLLAR HKD / 1 $ 7.839 (0.0) (0.9) 7.8 7.8
INDONESIAN RUPIAH IDR / 1 $ 13765 0.2 (3.0) 13817 13126
MALAYSIAN RINGGIT MYR / 1 $ 3.905 0.2 13.9 4.5 3.9
PHILIPPINES PESO PHP / 1 $ 52.000 0.1 (3.2) 52.5 49.3
SINGAPORE DOLLAR SGD / 1 $ 1.314 0.2 7.6 1.4 1.3
SOUTH KOREAN WON KRW / 1 $ 1065 0.4 7.4 1158 1058
TAIWAN DOLLAR TWD / 1 $ 29.273 0.1 5.7 31.0 29.0
THAI BAHT THB / 1 $ 31.314 0.0 12.8 35.4 31.2
RUSSIAN RUBLE RUB / 1 $ 56.873 (0.4) 3.4 61.0 55.6
S AFRICAN RAND ZAR / 1 $ 11.848 (0.3) 10.9 14.6 11.5
BRAZILIAN REAL BRL / 1 $ 3.256 0.3 (1.9) 3.4 3.1
MEXICAN PESO MXN / 1 $ 18.642 (0.1) 5.2 19.9 17.5
DOLLAR INDEX Spot 90.076 (0.0) (11.0) 101.8 88.3
Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research
Bonds
10Y Govt Bond Yld% 1D Chg BPS 1Y Chg BPS 52WH 52WL
INDIA 7.629 (4.2) 72.5 7.8 6.4
US 2.899 0.6 32.5 3.0 2.0
GERMANY 0.639 (0.9) 15.4 0.8 0.2
FRANCE 0.878 (1.3) (23.8) 1.1 0.6
CHINA 3.849 (0.2) 42.8 4.0 3.2
JAPAN 0.053 0.0 (3.6) 0.1 (0.0)
UK 1.500 0.8 26.9 1.7 0.9
BRAZIL 9.580 3.8 (86.1) 11.8 9.5
ITALY 2.024 1.3 (34.3) 2.4 1.6
RUSSIA 7.171 4.8 (109.0) 8.2 7.1
CANADA 2.272 0.2 46.1 2.4 1.4
AUSTRALIA 2.818 3.5 (15.9) 3.0 2.3
SPAIN 1.424 (1.2) (46.5) 1.9 1.3
S.KOREA 2.757 1.0 45.0 2.8 2.1
MEXICO 7.555 0.4 16.2 7.8 6.7
INDONESIA 6.806 (2.0) (71.8) 7.5 6.1
NETHERLANDS 0.678 (0.7) (6.3) 1.5 0.4
NORWAY 1.945 0.4 8.6 2.0 1.5
SWITZERLAND 0.099 (1.6) 4.1 0.2 (0.2)
HONG KONG 2.118 2.4 15.7 2.1 1.2
SINGAPORE 2.441 2.2 1.1 2.5 1.9
SOUTH AFRICA - 2.0 (25.4) 9.5 8.3
PORTUGAL 1.858 (0.5) (219.8) 4.3 1.7
GREECE 4.185 0.4 (300.3) 7.5 3.6
Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research
Commodities
Commodity Unit LTP %1D %1Y 52WH 52WL
BRENT CRUDE OIL $/bbl 65.0 (0.7) 24.5 70.3 47.9
NYMEX CRUDE OIL $/bbl 61.7 (0.6) 22.1 66.4 44.2
NATURAL GAS $/mmbtu 2.7 0.5 (5.0) 3.0 2.5
GOLD $/troy ounce 1316.7 (0.5) 9.3 1366.2 1197.4
SILVER $/troy ounce 16.5 (0.7) (3.0) 18.7 15.2
PLATINUM $/troy ounce 958.5 (0.7) 2.0 1028.7 873.2
ALUMINIUM $/MT 2120.0 0.7 13.5 2290.5 1855.0
COPPER $/MT 6962.0 1.9 22.4 7312.5 5462.5
ZINC $/MT 3277.0 1.5 22.2 3595.5 2427.5
NICKEL $/MT 13860.0 4.4 36.6 14420.0 8680.0
LEAD $/MT 2376.0 1.7 5.6 2685.0 2043.5
IRON ORE $/ MT 68.4 (1.2) (15.9) 89.4 52.5
COAL $/ MT 95.8 (0.6) 35.3 105.0 76.1
COKING COAL $/ MT 225.6 (2.9) 40.1 314.0 141.2
CORN Cents / bu 388.8 (0.4) (2.8) 430.0 353.8
WHEAT Cents / bu 483.8 (1.1) (4.6) 609.8 423.8
SOYBEAN Cents / bu 1039.0 (0.0) 3.0 1082.5 928.8
ROUGH RICE $ / 100 lb 12.3 (0.2) - 12.9 11.8
CRUDE PALMOIL MYR / MT 2381.0 0.2 (10.7) 2854.0 2350.0
SOYBEAN OIL Cents / lb 31.6 (0.1) (6.9) 36.5 31.4
COFFEE Cents / lb 119.7 (0.4) (22.6) 158.8 118.6
SUGAR Cents / lb 12.8 (0.1) (30.0) 18.5 12.8
COTTON Cents / lb 83.9 (0.7) 11.8 86.6 66.6
ETHANOL $ / Gal 1.5 (0.1) 1.7 1.5 1.4
RUBBER Cents / KG 149.8 0.1 (24.8) 204.8 137.2
BALTIC DRY INDEX Index 1201.0 0.3 10.6 1743.0 818.0
Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research
Global Markets at a Glance
5
Mar 12, 2018
Economy & Strategy
Exhibit: Nifty
Exhibit: S&P 500
Exhibit: Euro Stoxx 50
Exhibit: Nikkei
Exhibit: Shanghai
Exhibit: INR
Exhibit: Dollar Index
Exhibit: Eur
Exhibit: JPY
Exhibit: CNY
Exhibit: India 10 Yr Yld %
Exhibit: US 10 Yr Yld %
Exhibit: Germany 10 Yr Yld %
Exhibit: Japan 10 Yr Yld %
Exhibit: China 10 Yr Yld %
Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research
Global Markets at a Glance
10000
10100
10200
10300
10400
10500
5-Mar
6-Mar
7-Mar
8-Mar
9-Mar
12-Mar
64.70
64.80
64.90
65.00
65.10
65.20
65.30
5-Mar
6-Mar
7-Mar
8-Mar
9-
Mar
12-Mar
7.50
7.55
7.60
7.65
7.70
7.75
7.80
5-Mar
6-Mar
7-Mar
8-Mar
9-Mar
12-Mar
2,680
2,700
2,720
2,740
2,760
2,780
2,800
5-Mar
6-Mar
7-Mar
8-Mar
9-Mar
89.2
89.4
89.6
89.8
90.0
90.2
90.4
5-Mar
6-Mar
7-Mar
8-Mar
9-Mar
2.83
2.84
2.85
2.86
2.87
2.88
2.89
2.90
5-Mar
6-Mar
7-Mar
8-Mar
9-Mar
3,320
3,340
3,360
3,380
3,400
3,420
3,440
5-Mar
6-Mar
7-Mar
8-Mar
9-Mar
1.220
1.225
1.230
1.235
1.240
1.245
5-Mar
6-Mar
7-Mar
8-Mar
9-Mar
0.600
0.620
0.640
0.660
0.680
5-Mar
6-Mar
7-Mar
8-Mar
9-Mar
20,500
21,000
21,500
22,000
5-Mar
6-Mar
7-
Mar
8-Mar
9-Mar
105.5
106.0
106.5
107.0
5-Mar
6-Mar
7-Mar
8-
Mar
9-
Mar
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
5-Mar
6-Mar
7-Mar
8-Mar
9-Mar
3,220
3,240
3,260
3,280
3,300
3,320
5-Mar
6-Mar
7-Mar
8-Mar
9-Mar
6.29
6.30
6.31
6.32
6.33
6.34
6.35
6.36
5-Mar
6-Mar
7-Mar
8-Mar
9-Mar
3.84
3.85
3.85
3.86
3.86
3.87
5
-Mar
6-Mar
7-Mar
8-Mar
9-Mar
6
Mar 12, 2018
Economy & Strategy
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Disclaimer
y Analyst certication: The following analysts J K Jain & Economist Jayasree Ram, who is (are) primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s)
is/are mentioned therein, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and
issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specic recommendation(s) or views contained in
this research report.
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are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Actual results may dier materially from those set forth in projections.
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company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.
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the date of this report for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months or for services
rendered as Registrar and Share Transfer Agent, Commodity Broker, Currency and forex broker, merchant banker and underwriter, Investment Advisory
services, insurance repository services, consultancy and advisory services, realty services, data processing, proling and related services or in any other
capacity.
y KSBL encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conict in preparation of research report.
y Compensation of KSBL’s Research Analyst(s) is not based on any specic merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.
y KSBL generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a nancial interest in the securities or derivatives of
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y KSBL or its associates collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the
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y KSBL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benets from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with
preparation of the research report and have no nancial interest in the subject company mentioned in this report.
y Accordingly, neither KSBL nor Research Analysts have any material conict of interest at the time of publication of this report.
y It is conrmed that KSBL and Research Analysts, primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein of this report have not
received any compensation from the subject company mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months.
y It is conrmed that J K Jain, Research Analyst & Jayasree Ram, Economist did not serve as an ocer, director or employee of the companies mentioned
in the report.
y KSBL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach dierent conclusion from the information presented in this report.
y Neither the Research Analysts nor KSBL have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.
y We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on KSBL by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analyst activities.
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